NFL PREDICTIONS - RESULTS
For the regular readers of my blog, you will know I posted predictions in my preview's. Here is the complete list of results on a weekly basis.
Week 1 - 13-3
Week 2 - 11-5
Week 3 - 5-11
Week 4 - 11-4
Week 5 - 10-4
Week 6 - 8-6
Week 7 - 9-4
Week 8 - 7-7
Week 9 - 12-1 (Forgot to predict Thursday Night Football)
Week 10 - 11-3
Week 11 - 7-7
Week 12 - 10-6
Week 13 - 10-6
Week 14 - 11-5
Week 15 - 7-9
Week 16 - 13-3
Week 17 - 11-5
Total = 166-89 (forgot one game)
Percentage = 0.651
Overall, I think I could have done better but just under two thirds isn't a bad record and I now have a target to aim for next season.
As well as the weekly game by game predictions I also done a preview before the start of the season were I predicted each teams record for the year. The full article can be found here:
http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html
Below is a summary of how I got on.
Exactly correct - 2 (Buccaneers, Titans)
One win away - 4 (Bears, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders)
Two wins away - 8 (Packers, Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Browns, Jaguars)
Two and a half wins away - 2 (49ers, Rams)
Three Wins Away - 5 (Panthers, Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers)
Four Wins Away - 4 (Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts)
Five Wins Away - 2 (Broncos, Chiefs)
Six Wins Away - 3 (Eagles, Redskins, Seahawks)
Seven Wins Away - 1 (Vikings)
Eight Wins Away - 1 (Lions)
Again I'm not really sure how good or bad that is as I have nothing to compare it to but I will try to better it next season.
The one thing I do have something to compare is the teams I picked to qualify for the playoffs and my Superbowl prediction. I saved the predictions of five writers from a well known Football website and have compared my result with theirs.
I managed to pick out six (Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots, Texans, Ravens) of the twelve playoff teams. Of the six I got wrong (Steelers, Chargers, Bills, Giants, Lions, Bears), only three of them got close (Steelers, Giants, Bears). The other three I was miles off with.
The six teams I did not predict to reach the playoffs were Seattle, Washington, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Denver. For four of those teams I overestimated how quickly things can turn around in the NFL. The Colts and the Redskins both got there with rookie quarterbacks who I highly rated but I just didn't think they would turn things around so quickly.
The Seahawks also got there with a rookie quarterback. I had read a lot about Russell Wilson in preseason about how great this kid was, mostly Bill Simmons, so I watched him in the first few games and to be honest I wasn't impressed. I remember in previous years about Eagles fans getting excited about Mike Kafka in preseason games and I had Wilson filed in the same bracket. It took him a few games to get settled but slowly his performances have improved and he has worked his way right up to the rookie of the year conversation.
The other team I overestimated was the Cincinnati Bengals. They made the playoffs last year but I expected the Steelers and Ravens to be a little bit ahead of them and I expected it would be another year on the learning curve for Andy Dalton and AJ Green. However, those two have stepped it up on offense along with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and with the defense also having a good year the Bengals managed to pick up the AFC's sixth seed.
The one team of the six who I would have given no chance to would have been the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were poor last year and with Adrian Peterson coming off serious knee surgery I had them wrote off this year. I wasn't impressed with Christian Ponder in his rookie season either but he has shown a lot of improvement this year. His accuarcy has increased by 7.8% and he has thrown less interceptions in more games. He's far from perfect but if he can keep increasing those numbers, he may well turn out to be a decent quarterback for the Vikings. The biggest surprise though was Adrian Peterson. People just don't suffer career threatening injuries and then get to within 9 yards of breaking the single season rushing record. His performances have been exceptional and I am delighted to see him back in the playoffs where he belongs.
The final team I missed out is the worst and most embarrassing mistake I have made in my blogs this season. There's one thing any NFL fan, blogger, journalist, pundit should not do and I made a rookie mistake by doing it. I wrote off a Manning!!! Nobody should ever do that. I knew it then and I done it anyway. These guys seem to save their best for when people are writing them off. I am convinced that the reason the Giants didn't make the playoffs this year is because nobody was writing off Eli after his excellent performances last year when he won his second Superbowl. No doubt people will write him off this off season and he'll come back and lead the Giants on a deep playoff run.
As I said, I wrote off Peyton Manning. He had some pretty serious surgery last year and I just didn't think he was going to be the same guy but he has lost nothing and will be right up there when this years MVP is decided. Right now, I'd put him behind Adrian Peterson in that race but I've learned my lesson and I am certainly not going to rule him out.
The final prediction I made was my Superbowl pick. At the start of the season, I predicted the 49ers would beat the Patriots which I am happy to say is still a possibility. My thoughts have changed to be honest but at least I still have the chance of being correct.
In comparison to the five writers I compared myself against, I haven't done great. Of the other five, one predicted eight teams correctly, two predicted seven correctly and the other two predicted six correctly. I never beat any of them but at least I done as well as two of them.
In the Superbowl predictions, I am still in contention to be correct along with four of the five writers. The one who is already wrong predicted a repeat of last year's Superbowl with the Giants once again beating the Patriots.
My predictions aren't done for the season and I will continue to do my previews and predictions for every playoff game, including the Superbowl. I will also complete a playoff bracket, showing how I think this years championship will be won and lost.
Finally, for anyone interested, I have set up a NFL Playoff Challenge League for readers of the blog. I will be in it so why don't you and your friends enter too. if you are already playing it is easy to join. Just click this link and join the league. It is open to the public and no passwords are required. Good luck.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
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