Saturday's Divisional Round Games

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)

Baltimore travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC's divisional round opener.  The Broncos have the number one seed and home advantage right to the Superbowl.  They have earned that with eleven consecutive victories to finish 13-3 for the season.  They were in the playoffs last year and got to this same stage but they made a franchise changing signing by bringing in Peyton Manning and look better for it.  At the time it was seen as a gamble as Manning was coming back from several neck surgeries and many experts had written him off.  A slow start only increased the pressure on him but it doesn't seem to matter to Manning.  He began to find his form after a few games and ended up having one of the best seasons of his career.  This year will mean a lot to Manning as I'm sure there would have been doubts in his own mind when he was struggling with injury and what could be a better end to a great season than to win a Superbowl in the city he was born in and where his father spent the bulk of his career.  It would be the perfect end to a fantastic year for the Broncos quarterback.

The Ravens have their own romantic story.  Legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis has confirmed that this will be his last season in the NFL and how fitting would it be if he ended it with a ring in Superbowl XLVII.  He has already played his last game in Baltimore which was an emotional occasion and that emotion will carry over each week now as every time he takes to the field, he knows it could potentially be his last game.  Lewis has had a great career which has saw him win a Superbowl, Superbowl MVP, Defensive Player of the Year (twice), voted into the Pro Bowl thirteen times and named as an All-Pro seven times.  Those are the numbers of a Hall of Famer and there can be no doubt that regardless of how this year ends, Lewis is worthy of a place in the hall.

Last week the Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts but they didn't have it all their own way.  The Colts completed dominated possession and had the ball for over 37 minutes but were unable to finish off their drives.  If Baltimore are going to have any chance, they need to restrict Peyton Manning's time on the field as much as they possibly can.  If Manning gets the ball for 37 minutes, you can be sure he wouldn't waste the opportunity and would put at least 40 points on the board.  The Ravens need to keep the clock moving, which means plenty of running plays, plenty of short passes and if they can do that, then they can give themselves a chance.

The problem the Ravens have is the Broncos have got one of the best defenses in the league.  They ranked 3rd in the regular season in both pass defense and run defense, giving up an average of just 290.7 yards per game which was the second best record in the NFL.  They gave up just 18.1 points per game which was 4th and they sacked the opponents quarterback 52 times which was the best in the league.  That's a great return and with a defense as mean as that, you are halfway to having a good shot at a title.  The other half required is a good offense and Denver are right up there in that category too.  They are averaging just under 400 yards a game which is fourth in the league and they are scoring 30.1 points per game which is second in the NFL, behind the New England Patriots.  A big reason for that success is the protection they have been giving Peyton Manning.  They have allowed just 21 sacks this season which is the second best record in the league.  When any quarterback gets protection like that, he will hurt the opposition but when you have an elite quarterback like Manning getting that sort of protection, that's the stuff Superbowl's are made of.

When I look at the match ups, it doesn't look good for the Ravens.  The only place they have an edge is turnovers.  The Ravens have done a good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just 16 times in the regular season.  The Broncos defense's one weakness is they have only forced 24 turnovers but when you're sacking the quarterback as much as they do, he doesn't get to throw many interceptions.  Denver have turned the ball over 25 times and the Ravens defense forced 25 in the regular season.  The problem is, I can't see them getting enough pressure on Manning to force him into the mistakes they need him to make. 

Prediction - I really fancy the Broncos for the Superbowl and can't see the Ravens giving them too much trouble. 



Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)

This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend.  It should be an absolute cracker between two strong sides.  They met in Green Bay in the opening weekend of the season and on that occasion the 49ers came out on top.  A lot has changed since then though and for me the Packers have improved and the 49ers have weakened. 

Green Bay got here courtesy of a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings in last week's wildcard round.  They done a decent job of restricting Adrian Peterson to 99 yards and Joe Webb had a terrible day, completing just over a third of his passes.  The Packers were solid without ever really being exceptional but they done enough to beat a misfiring Vikings.  Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown.  The Packers are almost back at full strength now and will be a match for anyone in the NFC as long as they can get their best players on the field.

The 49ers have been at the centre of a lot of controversy as a result of changing their quarterback half way through the season.  Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith after Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10.  I've made it clear in the past that I don't think it was the right move and had many a debate with NFL fans about it but I will stand by my comments and say that I believe Alex Smith was the best option for the 49ers this year.  The 49ers system requires a quarterback who is required to make short, accurate passes and that job is done better by Alex Smith.  They both attempted 218 passes this year with Smith completing 153 compared to Kaepernick's 136.  Smith had more touchdowns and ended the season with a higher QB rating.  There can be no doubt that Kaepernick brings more in the ground game but there has been a drop in Frank Gore's numbers since Kaepernick came in and I can't believe that anyone would want Kaepernick carrying the ball down the field instead of Gore. 

The match ups are quite intriguing as well.  The 49ers have a very strong defense and ranked 4th in both pass defense and run defense.  More interesting though is the fact that they weren't particularly impressive in sacks or turnovers.  Most top defenses are very good at one or the other but the 49ers are mid table in both.  They are giving up 294 yards per game which is excellent and ranks 3rd in the NFL.  They are 4th in rushing but the passing game hasn't been great and ranked 23rd in the regular season.  A big part of this game hangs on the 49ers defense getting to Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers has been sacked a lot this year but the 49ers haven't been great in getting to the quarterback.  The 49ers defense have 38 sacks this year and when you consider Aldon Smith got 19.5 on his own, the numbers aren't that great.  Aldon Smith's productivity has dropped in recent weeks since Justin Smith's injury and with the news that both are only listed as probable for this game I would worry about what Aaron Rodgers could do to the 49ers. 

Green Bay will play their usual game.  They will primarily look to pass the ball and will only run it to keep the defense honest.  They ran the ball a lot more last week but that was more to do with how the game was playing out.  Over the season the Packers have attempted to pass on over 56% of their plays but I would expect that figure to be a bit higher tomorrow night. 

Prediction - This game will be decided on who wins the battle between the Packers offensive line and the 49ers defensive line.  If the Packers win that battle, they will win this game easily.  If it's an even battle, the Packers will win in a tight win.  I'm going to put my faith in Aaron Rodgers finding a way of getting it done and sending Green Bay to the NFC title game.